Webb12 jan. 2015 · Philip Tetlock University of Pennsylvania This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequen-tial as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 … Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in … Visa mer Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979. He has served on the … Visa mer He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: 1. the concept of good judgment (with special emphasis on … Visa mer • Official website • Phil Tetlock at Social Psychology Network maintained by Scott Plous Visa mer
Philip Tetlock – Management Department
WebbPhilip E. Tetlock, The Ohio State University Cognitive theories predict that even experts cope with the complexities and ambiguities of world politics by resorting to theory-driven heuristics that allow them: (a) to make confident counterfactual inferences about what would have happened had history gone WebbTetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his … device checks for asm warning no
Philip Tetlock: Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than …
Webb8 juli 2016 · Tetlock’s first assault on the edifice of received opinion was a 20-year study into the accuracy of thousands of forecasts from hundreds of academics, analysts and pundits. Expert Political ... Webb29 aug. 2024 · "Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting—by academics or intelligence analysts, independent … WebbLERNER2 and PHILIP E. TETLOCK3 1University of California, Berkeley, USA 2Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA 3The Ohio State University, USA Abstract This study … device class binary sensor